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Lu Zhiqiang: China’s economy will not have a hard landing nor suffer from deflation

Datetime:2016-03-11

[Reporter of People’sDaily] I have a question for Mr. Lu Zhiqiang. Someone advocates that China’seconomy will be confronted with the risks of hard landing and deflation. How doyou think the future tendency of China’s economy as an entrepreneur in the realestate and financial investment field?


[Member of the Standing Committee of CPPCC,Vice-chairman of All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, Chairman andPresident of China Oceanwide Holdings Group Lu Zhiqiang] Recently, we oftentalked about the opinion on China’s economy. In my opinion, currently China’seconomy is undergoing many changes, difficulties and opportunities. The opinionon China’s economy depends on the standpoint and attitude. If you areconfident, you can see more opportunities from the changes, otherwise, you canonly see more difficulties. China’s economy will not have a hard landing. Thehard landing refers to sharp fluctuations in economic growth, which obviouslydoes not conform to the current and future development tendency of China’seconomy. The GDP growth 2013, 2014 and 2015 was respectively 7.7%, 7.3% and 6.9%.It is a process of slow decrease rather than sharp fluctuations, so it shallnot be deemed as a hard landing.


Generally, ineconomics CPI is defined as the observable variable of deflation, that is tosay, the deflation refers to the circumstance in which interval of CIP growthfor six consecutive months does not exceed 1%. It is also inapplicable. China’sCPI was maintained at 1%-2% in 2015. The CPI in thisJanuary was around 1.8%, and the CPI in February just announced yesterday wasabout 2.3%. Considering that China’s M2 growth has been maintained over 12% andGDP at 7%, we can come to the conclusion that China has entered into asubstantive deflation. But objectively speaking, the deflation is still increasing.


My opinions on China’seconomy are as follows: Firstly, China’s market economy has completelydifferent characteristics from the market-oriented market economy in westerncountries. That is to say, our contradictions are phased and the western contradictionsare periodic. It is very interesting, and we can have some discussions in termsof theories.


Secondly, on thewhole, China’s economy enjoys good fundamentals. The future development spaceof the Chinese market is much beyond our imagination with huge changes in the consumermarket, which provides great opportunities and space for the optimization,innovation, adjustment and transformation of state-owned enterprises andprivate enterprises. As is known to all, many innovation-driven enterprises andenterprises with early transformation will become leader in the Chinese marketin future. Currently, they are making outstanding performance and will makecontributions to China’s economy in the future.


Thirdly, thedevelopment objective of China’s economy is clear and definite, and the hugemarket demand and supply provide much space for market expansion and leeway. TheChinese system advantages cannot be negligible. China’s market economy isdual-driven, which emphasizes not only the decisive role of the market economyin resource allocation, but also the better display of the government role. Inmy opinion, the theories of productivity and productive relations are utilizedin a dialectic and scientific manner. The advantages in China’s system would becomemore outstanding in the case of economic difficulties and socialcontradictions.


I also wish to pointout the significance of the 13th Five-year plan period on thedevelopment of China’s economy. We are all clear about the contents in the 13thFive-year Plan Outline, which provides huge opportunities for the developmentof China’s economy and society, as well as the Chinese enterprises. Therefore,as an entrepreneur, I am full of confidence in China’s economy that it will nothave a hard landing, nor suffer from deflation.